Corona Virus scare

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AvgJoe
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Joined: April 15th, 2017, 7:38 am

Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby AvgJoe » April 13th, 2020, 1:43 pm

It seems here that flu deaths may include COVID-19 deaths, and the chart breaks out pneumonia deaths, pneumonia+COVID-19 deaths :
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

JDWood
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Location: Indianapolis IN

Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby JDWood » April 13th, 2020, 5:35 pm

That CDC page is limited to the time frame of February 1 to April 11 which misses the height of this year's flu season. As I read the description, the flu data does not include CV-19 deaths. Interestingly, the number of CV-19 deaths used in the modeling (and tracking) for April 11 was 20,461, a bit more than the 6,930 deaths shown on the CDC page.

One issue with all of the "data" is that 1) the underlying data is continually being corrected, and 2) the underlying data is not being correctly incorporated into the models/trackign data. This makes a lot of the tracking/modelling sites look a bit silly. For example, the most highly touted model ( https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... ca/indiana) asserts that Indiana had 55 deaths per day on April 10, which it now asserts to be the peak (up until yesterday the model predicted that the peak would be 45 deaths per day on April 16). The actual number of deaths on April 10 was 15. The peak death rate (to date) was on April 5, with 33 deaths. The problem is that Indiana provides "reported deaths", not "death rate". On April 10th 55 deaths were "reported", but most of those deaths actually occurred before April 10. The modelers clearly are not correctly understanding the data they are using.

As an FYI, the Indiana data is provided at this site:
https://coronavirus.in.gov/

AvgJoe
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Joined: April 15th, 2017, 7:38 am

Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby AvgJoe » April 13th, 2020, 7:50 pm

I took this statement as the flu deaths include possibly COVID-19 deaths: "Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and these conditions may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition. Thus, increases in pneumonia or influenza deaths may be an indicator of excess COVID-19-related mortality."

Perhaps I misunderstood. The worrisome part is that some doctors are concerned that COVID-19 will have long term effects on the heart, liver, brain, kidneys, etc. Unlike the flu, there is no vaccine for it (yet).

KurtG
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Joined: December 12th, 2016, 3:02 am

Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby KurtG » April 14th, 2020, 4:12 am

The problem with comparing this to the flu is we have whole season of flu data and this pandemic just started. The virus is contagious and much more virulent than the flu; so all things being equal; i.e. absent social distancing, the numbers would be much worse.

I just want to be able to get to work, the grocery store and the airport safely to pick up my koi, lol. They are citing people here and at the airport for not complying with the Governor's orders. All our federal security guards are infected at work, we take public transit in and you about need a gun to go grocery shopping here as people are fighting and the shelves are bare, We've met people who drove 3 hours from NJ to shop here. I planted a garden a few weeks ago when saw this going downhill quickly, but vegetables dont grow overnight. Maybe it is better elsewhere??

JDWood
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Joined: December 13th, 2016, 4:22 am
Location: Indianapolis IN

Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby JDWood » April 14th, 2020, 4:25 am

Actually, the scary thing is that all of the deaths we have from the flu, year after year, are even WITH a vaccine. Think about that. Even with a flu vaccine (or rather vaccines), the number of deaths from the flu dwarfs (to date at least) the number of deaths from CV-19. This summer/fall will tell us more about CV-19, but the proven effectiveness of a wide variety of cures for CV-19 (the most recent being the 1061 person HCL study from France, I think the 8th formal in vitro study on HCL, in addition to the "anecdotal" evidence), plus the fact that we can identify the specific people who are in danger from serious consequences from CV-19, makes CV-19 significantly less of a concern for the general population than the flu. If HCl is further a prophylactic as mounting evidence suggests (studies show this is likely due to the preferential binding of the viral protein to HCL over hemoglobin, thereby interrupting reproduction of the virus and eliminating complications from release of iron and oxygen starvation), the CV-19 virus will be even less of a concern.

Studies are further showing that CV-19 likely has the same mortality rate as the flu, if not less (one study concludes it is about 1/10 as deadly). Once the antibody tests become more widespread, additional light will be shed on this. The conclusion fits, however, since it looks like about 98% of people who have serious consequences from CV-19 have co-morbidities, so the pool of those susceptible to serious CV-19 consequences is much smaller than the pool susceptible to serious consequences from the flu. So long as CV-19 does not start changing, it is likely to be contained very quickly. If it proves capable of changing, like the flu, all bets are off, especially with its high transmissivity.

AvgJoe
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Joined: April 15th, 2017, 7:38 am

Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby AvgJoe » April 14th, 2020, 9:37 am

Store shelves of soap, canned goods, flour, sugar, and paper products are still bare here in Silicon Valley the last time I was in a supermarket about 2 weeks ago. They were/are limiting the number of people inside the stores, and we needed to wait in line 6 feet apart. You can still get some vegetables and fruit. I'm about to start seeds for my garden - I typically plant a lot of hot peppers since I enjoy the various colors, but this year, I'm going for more tomatoes, eggplants, beans, etc.

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Russell Peters
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby Russell Peters » April 17th, 2020, 8:55 am

There is also now talk of how there may not have been much difference between shelter in place and not shelter in place. A recent report showed that Ohio peaked even before the shelter in place started.
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rayray2030
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby rayray2030 » April 24th, 2020, 4:58 am

It’s looking like Hydroxychloroquine isn’t the game-changer it was being touted to be a few weeks ago. Go figure. Maybe bleach and sunlight will provide greater efficacy against this invisible scourge?

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Russell Peters
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby Russell Peters » April 24th, 2020, 7:50 am

rayray2030 wrote:It’s looking like Hydroxychloroquine isn’t the game-changer it was being touted to be a few weeks ago. Go figure. Maybe bleach and sunlight will provide greater efficacy against this invisible scourge?


Actually that is just the left spreading falsehoods. I know someone who's fathers life was saved using Hydroxychloroquine. Is it 100%? No, nothing is but, the doses given here in the US are less than the successful studies abroad and they are waiting too long to give it.
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rayray2030
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Joined: February 11th, 2019, 5:08 pm

Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby rayray2030 » April 24th, 2020, 8:32 am

Well thankfully it's looking like we have a better handle on the situation than just about every other country out there. We have some beautiful tests.


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