Corona Virus scare

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larryn
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Corona Virus scare

Postby larryn » February 25th, 2020, 2:43 pm

Hi Russ. I am sure I am not the only one wondering how this recent Corona Virus scare will affect your upcoming Spring buying trip and the shipment of fish this is due to arrive this week.

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Russell Peters
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby Russell Peters » February 25th, 2020, 7:34 pm

larryn wrote:Hi Russ. I am sure I am not the only one wondering how this recent Corona Virus scare will affect your upcoming Spring buying trip and the shipment of fish this is due to arrive this week.



Why would it affect anything? More people die of the flu, in the US, every year than the total in the entire world so far by many times. 50,000,000 million people died in the flu pandemic of 1918 and we are certainly a ways from that right?
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larryn
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby larryn » February 25th, 2020, 10:03 pm

I agree with you that it is a big nothing, like SARS and such. I was just curious if US Customs is scrutinizing shipment from Asia more than normal making it more difficult.

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Russell Peters
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby Russell Peters » February 26th, 2020, 7:27 am

larryn wrote:I agree with you that it is a big nothing, like SARS and such. I was just curious if US Customs is scrutinizing shipment from Asia more than normal making it more difficult.


No, the only thing I have seen is that the US is listing Japan as a level 2. This means they are telling you to be careful.
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Russell Peters
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby Russell Peters » February 26th, 2020, 7:51 am

I just got off of the phone with the USDA. The Tosai are arriving on the 28th and they were confirming. I asked if they had any concerns about the coronavirus and Koi shipments and they said they had not given it any thought as it is a very unlikely source for transmission.
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Flfireman1
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby Flfireman1 » March 30th, 2020, 11:48 am

That is great news for you.

rayray2030
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby rayray2030 » April 13th, 2020, 9:13 am

larryn wrote:I agree with you that it is a big nothing, like SARS and such. I was just curious if US Customs is scrutinizing shipment from Asia more than normal making it more difficult.


Hope everyone is staying safe.

rayray2030
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby rayray2030 » April 13th, 2020, 9:15 am

Russell Peters wrote:
larryn wrote:Hi Russ. I am sure I am not the only one wondering how this recent Corona Virus scare will affect your upcoming Spring buying trip and the shipment of fish this is due to arrive this week.



Why would it affect anything? More people die of the flu, in the US, every year than the total in the entire world so far by many times. 50,000,000 million people died in the flu pandemic of 1918 and we are certainly a ways from that right?


Indiana has seen almost 3x as many deaths from COVID-19 in two months as they have from the seasonal flu this year. I hope you are staying safe Russ.

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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby Russell Peters » April 13th, 2020, 9:37 am

rayray2030 wrote:
Russell Peters wrote:
larryn wrote:Hi Russ. I am sure I am not the only one wondering how this recent Corona Virus scare will affect your upcoming Spring buying trip and the shipment of fish this is due to arrive this week.



Why would it affect anything? More people die of the flu, in the US, every year than the total in the entire world so far by many times. 50,000,000 million people died in the flu pandemic of 1918 and we are certainly a ways from that right?


Indiana has seen almost 3x as many deaths from COVID-19 in two months as they have from the seasonal flu this year. I hope you are staying safe Russ.



I do not believe that at all. COVID-19 is being misrepresented in the death tolls as they could be counting flu deaths, pneumonia deaths and other deaths as COVID-19.
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JDWood
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Re: Corona Virus scare

Postby JDWood » April 13th, 2020, 10:02 am

There is a significant difference between "reported" flu deaths and "reported" corona-virus deaths. The "reported" coronavirus deaths are better compared to the "estimated" flu deaths, since Indiana (under the guidance of the CDC) report anyone who might have had CV-19 (or exhibited symptoms like CV-19, which in many cases mimic the flu) as a CV-19 fatality, even if they did not die from CV-19. In contrast, deaths from the flu are not reportable. (Just a thought, what do you suppose the 80% of people (in Indiana) who are sick enough to ask for a CV-19 test, but test negative, actually have?).

So, lets look at the numbers. From the CDC:
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released their estimates for the influenza season from October 1, 2019 and February 29, 2020. During that period, an estimated 34 to 49 million people have been sickened with the flu, with 350,000 to 620,000 hospitalized. The estimated deaths from the flu is between 20,000 and 52,000 people.

The estimates are provided in ranges, since the CDC does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., since influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the U.S."

From the 20000-50000 flu deaths, through the end of February, the number of flu deaths I found that were attributed to Indiana totaled about 800.

So, comparing 800 flu deaths to 350 CV-19 "deaths", which includes the 11 who died from CV-19 Saturday and Sunday, CV-19 is not nearly as much of an issue as the flu, particularly for those like Russ who do not have the risk factors which are heavily associated with CV-19.

Funny thing, data. While the "models" are predicting today to be the peak number of deaths for Indiana at about 26, Friday/Sat/Sun have had 15/7/4 (subject to further modification). Based on current data it looks like deaths in Indiana actually peaked in early April.


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